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Investigating Weather and Climate Information Needs and Decision-Making"Scientific understanding of weather and climate has expanded dramatically, but the integration of that knowledge and its application to societal needs remains a grand challenge" (NCAR Strategic Plan, 2006). This strategic priority statement represents, along with NCAR's education goals, the primary thrust of the SERE program and enjoys contributions from all three of the SERE divisions. ASP contributes to this goal through postdoctoral fellows working with ISSE and CCB, while ISSE's research bridges the gap between atmospheric and related sciences and societal decisions, by examining how scientific information is used, and how policy and management decisions are made with uncertain or incomplete information. ISSE contributes valuable insights on when, where, and how science can best be part of societal decisions.
Incorporating Climate Change Information in Water Utility Planning [HIGHLIGHT] Use and Value of Scientific Information for Climate and Weather NCAR/Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) Collaboration Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change in California Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS)
Incorporating Climate Change Information in Water Utility Planning Historical background Climate change is likely to have profound impacts on water resource availability, flood frequency, watershed characteristics and water quality. Yet most water resource managers, and in particular, urban water providers have only a limited understanding of climate change and how it may affect their ability to continue serving their customers' needs in a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable manner. This knowledge gap impelled the American Water Works Research Foundation (AwwaRF) to seek NCAR's assistance in providing information to municipal water industry professionals about climate change, its implications for the drinking water industry and strategies to plan most effectively to manage those impacts. In response to this request, ISSE scientist Kathleen Miller and David Yates (RAL) developed a program to educate urban water providers in general about climate change (causes, processes, and likely changes in temperature and precipitation), and provide more detailed information about how information on future climate change might be incorporated into their longer-term decision-making processes.
Relationship to NCAR Strategic Plan Educating stakeholders (in this case urban water resource managers) regarding characteristics of future climate change relevant to their resource management activities has become an increasingly pressing need over the last few years. In order to successfully fill that need, the scientific community must first understand how the stakeholders may be affected by climate change, the response options available to them, and the types of information needed to for decision making. An important part of this project was a workshop, organized by Miller and Yates, to develop connections between the municipal water industry and the scientific community and to gather input on drinking water industry concerns, recent climate impacts on urban water providers and vulnerabilities to prospective climate changes. This interaction directly served NCAR's priority to "investigate weather and climate information needs and decision-making." The workshop was the first step in producing a book for the industry that draws upon an extensive scientific literature to provide a sound overview of the current understanding of climate change (both natural and human caused), its impacts on water resources and implications for the drinking water industry. The book outlines the current state of scientific understanding regarding the potential impacts of global climate change on water utilities, including impacts on water supply, demand and relevant water quality characteristics. By making this information readily accessible to this critically-important industry, the project supports NCAR's overall strategic goal to "increase societal resilience to weather, climate, and other atmospheric hazards."
Description This project began with a workshop involving representatives of major urban water utilities in the U.S., Canada, and Europe as well as scientists from NCAR, the university community, government agencies and consulting firms. The project team then worked with industry representatives to develop material for the educational resource - a book and accompanying CD. The book, Climate Change and Water: A Primer for Municipal Water Providers, alerts urban drinking-water professionals to the fact that global climate change may have large impacts on the availability, quality, and cost of water to meet consumer demands. For example, declining summer streamflows as a result of earlier snowmelt may reduce water-supply reliability for a number of cities in the western United States , especially during dry years. Sediment transport into reservoirs and resulting water-quality degradation as a result of intense precipitation events is also a significant source of concern for some of the nation's largest municipal water providers. For example, such events impair water quality in New York City 's reservoirs (see figure). Timeframe In 2003, AwwaRF initiated this project by asking NCAR to produce a scientifically sound, but easily understood, educational resource on climate change for municipal water industry professionals. In March 2004, Miller and Yates hosted the workshop to initiate the exchange of information between the scientific community and the drinking water industry. The workshop provided guidance on the structure and content of the book and CD. In writing the book, Miller and Yates worked closely with several AwwaRF member municipal water utilities in North America and Europe to develop case studies that exemplify the challenges posed by climate-related disruptions and the need to plan for adapting to climate change impacts.
Accomplishments FY2006: Milestones and Outputs The book was completed and published in 2006. Copies have been distributed to all of AwwaRF's more than 900 member utilities. Additional copies and electronic downloads are available from AwwaRF, and the book also is available for download on ISSE's website. In addition, Miller and Yates have made several presentations based on this project to both industry groups and to broader audiences about the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, and useful approaches to planning in the context of inevitable uncertainties. For example, in March 2006, Miller presented this work at a conference at the University of Utah School of Law that was attended by a broad spectrum of citizens and policy makers from the western states. A paper summarizing the talk will appear in the Fall 2006 issue of the Journal of Land, Resources and Environmental Law.
Next Steps FY2007 Significant uncertainties regarding local-scale hydrologic changes present both practical and conceptual challenges to urban water planners. As a result, NCAR and the American Water Works Research Foundation (AwwaRF) have initiated a new project that is focused on helping water utilities to plan effectively for adaptation to climate-change impacts, despite the uncertainties. The project will develop decision support tools and a framework for analysis that water utilities can use to explore their options for managing climate change risks. During FY2007, the NCAR team will collaborate with a small number of urban water providers to develop a structured decision-analytic approach to infrastructure and management planning that will incorporate results from a suite of climate models into a simple but useful integrated water management model of relevant water resources. The project will draw on other ongoing NCAR research projects, including SERE research on probabilistic regional climate change scenarios and work in RAL on integrated water resource management modeling. The goal is to develop pilot applications of a streamlined approach to evaluate the implications of future changes in hydrology for system planning and management. This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, with additional funding from AwwaRF. Miller, K. and D. Yates, 2006: Climate Change and Water Resources: A Primer for Municipal Water Providers. Denver, CO: AwwaRF and UCAR. 83 pp. (Available here in PDF format)
Use and Value of Scientific Information for Climate and Weather
Many of the uncertainties regarding future climate change will not be significantly reduced before decisions must be made for planning purposes across a wide range of human activities (e.g., resource management, human health management, mitigation plans). Given this basic condition, new protocols are necessary for managing uncertainty, and making decisions in the near term for long-term management. The DUST Model (Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool) was developed during FY2006 within SERE as one innovative tool to serve this purpose. DUST links the research being carried out on uncertainty assessments within weather forecasts, climate variability and change projections, and impact analyses with work on decision- and policy-making. The ultimate goal of this integrative effort is to ensure that scientific information effectively connects with the needs of decision makers. In FY2006, the basic components of DUST were defined. These components are described in a seven-level process: (1) the stage in the decision process where climate science could enter; (2) ensure that scientific input is truly useful; (3) identify the type of decision program the decision maker faces; (4) identify the specific decision challenge; (5) identify necessary uncertainty analyses; 6) conduct identified uncertainty analyses; and (7) communicate uncertainties back to the decision maker. The DUST model will be refined during FY2007 to ensure that it meets the goals of usefulness and applicability for all kinds of weather- and climate-sensitive decisions and in a variety of contexts. ISSE scientists will involve both scientists and decision-makers in conducting working sessions to assess the usability and value of the DUST model. The Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool (DUST) will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Several case studies will be presented in these articles to illustrate the conceptual tool (e.g., adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal California , water resource management in California, fire management in Colorado). This research is supported by the National Science Foundation through its support of ISSE and SERE.
NCAR/Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) Collaboration
NCAR and NOAA's RISA Program share several essential goals. Both aim to produce high-quality research in the service of societal needs. Specifically, the RISA program supports research that addresses complex climate-sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. The RISA research team members are primarily based at universities, though some of the team members are based at government research facilities, non-profit organizations or private sector entities. Traditionally the research has focused on the fisheries, water, wildfire, and agriculture sectors. The program also supports research into climate-sensitive public health issues. Recently, coastal restoration has also become an important research focus for some of the teams. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) will produce high-resolution climate change scenarios for the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. Consequently, NARCCAP will provide the RISA Program a host of climate variables for detailed climate and climate impacts analyses during FY2007, specifically region-specific medium and long-term climate projections. (See NARCCAP link for more information about this program.) ISSE scientists began a comprehensive collaboration between NCAR and RISA during FY2006 to include plans for a high-level workshop. Researchers at NCAR and at two RISAs, specifically the Pacific RISA and the Alaska Center for Climate Information and Policy, began building several collaborative projects during FY2006. These projects will be further developed during FY2007. This collaborative project is supported by the National Science Foundation, with additional funding from NOAA's Climate Program Office.
The need for effective communication, public outreach, and education as a way to increase support for a particular course of policy or collective action is pervasive. Perhaps nowhere is it more pressing than in the context of anthropogenic climate change. The growing scientific consensus that the causes of climate change, as well as scientists' increasingly urgent message that climate change is under way, will lead to significant and increasingly severe impacts calls for a concerted response. A workshop was held by SERE researchers in June 2004 ("Communicating Urgency, Facilitating Social Change: New Strategies for Climate Change") to take stock of what is known about communication and social change in pertinent fields and to foster exchange across disciplinary, academic, and paradigmatic lines. The goal was to develop a research and action agenda for effective climate change communication in the context of climate change. The culmination of this agenda is an edited book, to be released in early FY2007. The book is co-edited by ISSE scientist Susanne Moser and University of Colorado scientist Lisa Dilling. Its two main parts on (1) communication and (2) social change are preceded by an introductory chapter on the challenges of communicating climate change and bringing about social change. The book concludes with synthesis chapters capturing common lessons, research and action needs. Creating a Climate for Change explores how communication efforts can be strengthened to make them better serve society's ability to respond to a challenge requiring policy and individual action. The editors have drawn on diverse scholarship in relevant disciplines to examine ways to effectively communicate climate change and offers well-founded pragmatic suggestions for improvement. The book is currently in press with Cambridge University Press. This three-year-long project not only contributes to this strategic priority, but also to "Improving Public Awareness and Understanding of Atmospheric and Related Sciences." This research was funded by the National Science Foundation through its support of SERE. Support for this project was provided by the MacArthur Foundation, ISSE, the Walter Orr Roberts Institute at NCAR, and the National Science Foundation.
Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change in California California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an Executive Order in June 2005 that called for specific emission reductions and a periodic update on the state of climate change science and the emerging understanding of potential impacts on climate-sensitive sectors, such as the state's water supply, public health, agriculture, coastal areas, and forestry. He also requested that future impact assessments include a "report on mitigation and adaptation plans to combat these impacts." ISSE scientist Susanne Moser collaborated with research colleagues in California on a white paper, "Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change in California: Opportunities and Constraints for Adaptation." The paper is based in part on extensive interviews and surveys with coastal managers in relevant local, regional, state, and federal agencies. The white paper contains a summary of the insights from the existing literature on adaptation and provides examples from selected sectors in California to illuminate the opportunities and constraints on California's ability to adapt to climate change. A key finding from the report is that while managers' general awareness of climate change and willingness to prepare for the coming changes are high, their understanding and analytic capacity are deeply constrained by staff and resource limitations. As a result, managers in the coastal sector have largely not yet begun to prepare for the impacts from climate change. The research also revealed specific information needs of coastal managers that would support them as they begin preparing for climate change impacts.
ISSE scientists will continue through FY2007 to collaborate with scientists in California and elsewhere to stay on the forefront of California's mitigation and adaptation efforts. Results from this study indicate considerable capacity in California to deal with the impacts of climate change and sea level rise, but also a variety of challenging constraints on realizing that potential. This project was supported by the California Energy Commission, and the California Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Science Foundation. Luers, A.L., and S.C. Moser, 2006: Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change in California: Opportunities and Constraints for Adaptation. White Paper. Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center. 47 pp. (available here in PDF).
Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS)
A visiting scientist in ISSE and geographer Eve Gruntfest from the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs envisioned the WAS*IS concept during FY2006. Inspired by the number of people she met throughout her career who realized the value of an integrated weather and social science enterprise, she enlisted the help of atmospheric scientist Julie Demuth (ISSE/RAL) to create a series of workshops to effect change within the weather enterprise by fully integrating social science into meteorological research. Integrated weather-society work is interdisciplinary by nature, and there are few formal paths for focusing on these issues in traditional settings. Thus, the idea of holding a workshop to teach social science methods to meteorologists and to build a community of interested people evolved into the creation of WAS*IS. The mission of WAS*IS is to empower practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders to forge new relationships and use new tools and concepts for more effective socioeconomic applications and evaluations of weather information and products. The WAS*IS concept was envisioned as a way to enable those people who are enthusiastic and passionate about societal impacts of weather but who do not know how or where to begin to pursue such efforts.
Between July 2005 and August 2006, WAS*IS held three workshops, two in Boulder and one in Norman, Oklahoma, with a total of over 85 invited participants. By emphasizing the importance of learning social science tools and concepts, the idea is to change the culture from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies. WAS*IS furthers NCAR's strategic goals in numerous ways, with an emphasis on building a life-long community of stakeholders dedicated to building an interdisciplinary integration of meteorology and social science. WAS*IS also increases societal resilience to weather, climate, and other atmospheric phenomena by exploring public perception and understanding of forecast and uncertainty information, risk perception and response to forecast and warning information, and social verification of forecast and warning information. In addition to the three national workshops already held, a workshop in Melbourne, Australia will be held in January-February 2007. WAS*IS is supported by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's Societal Impacts Program, the Visiting Scientist Program, and the US Weather Research Program.
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