julie demuth
Research Highlights
Olga Wilhelmi (left) and Julie Demuth (right) at the 2007 Summer WAS*IS workshop in Boulder. In FY07, Julie Demuth worked with Jeff Lazo and Rebecca Morss (NCAR) to further implement a project to examine the U.S. public's experiences with and views on weather and weather forecasts. To explore these issues, they implemented a nationwide, web-based survey in November 2006 to assess (a) people's sources, perceptions, uses, and value of weather forecast information; and (b) people's interpretation of, use of, and preferences for weather forecast uncertainty information. Julie analyzed much of the forecast uncertainty data and presented some of the initial results at conferences and within NCAR. They will further disseminate the survey findings in FY08 through at least two manuscript submissions to peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations to the research community, and discussions with key organizations (e.g., the National Weather Service) that communicate weather forecasts.
Julie's FY07 research activities also included beginning work with Jeff Lazo and Emily Laidlaw (NCAR) on a project to assess the use and value of weather forecast information to the transportation sector through expert elicitation. Much of their FY07 work included developing the project and refining the expert elicitation protocol through correspondence with other NCAR scientists who have significant expertise about the transportation sector. Julie also worked with Jeff Lazo and Rebecca Morss, Kathleen Tierney and Jeannette Sutton (University of Colorado), and Ann Bostrom (University of Washington) to develop a proposal on improving the use and communication of extreme weather warning information. The proposal was funded and work will begin in January 2008. The study will look at interactions among four groups (forecasters, public officials, the media, and members of the public) and how they receive, interpret, and use warning information, with a focus on hurricanes in the Miami, FL, area and flash floods in the Boulder, CO, area.
Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Highlights (www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis)
In FY07, Julie also continued her work on WAS*IS. The WAS*IS program works to connect meteorology and social science by building an interdisciplinary, grassroots community of people passionate about this work, and by providing this group with opportunities to learn and discuss related tools and concepts. Much of the Australia WAS*IS workshop was planned locally, but Julie helped plan the agenda and gave presentations during the workshop. Julie also planned the Summer WAS*IS workshop, including selecting the participants, planning the full eight-day agenda, giving several presentations, and leading several discussions throughout. Julie also began working with Eve Gruntfest (University of Colorado-Colorado Springs) and Sheldon Drobot (University of Colorado-Boulder) on developing a WAS*IS compendium to highlight the methods, results, and cooperative efforts of projects that successfully integrate meteorology and social science. It is designed to supplement undergraduate and graduate-level courses (e.g., in atmospheric science, geography, hydrology, environmental science) and to be used as a reference for scientists and practitioners to apply in their own work. Finally, to disseminate information about the WAS*IS program, Julie co-authored a manuscript which was accepted and will be published in the November 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Community Service
In FY07, Julie became a member of the American Meteorological Society ( AMS ) Board on Societal Impacts (http://ccar.colorado.edu/ams_sib/) and a volunteer for the AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts.
Recent Publications
Demuth, J. L., E. Gruntfest, R. E. Morss, S. Drobot, and J. K. Lazo, 2007: Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS): Building a community for integrating meteorology and social science. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Demuth, J., R. E Morss , J. K. Lazo, and A. E. Stewart, 2007. Assessing how the U.S. public understands and uses weather forecast uncertainty information. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Applied Climatology, San Antonio , TX , Amer. Meteor. Soc. CD-ROM, 3.3. Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/119820.pdf.
Recent Selected Presentations
Demuth, J., 2007. Thoughts about integrating social science with weather and climate. Invited presentation given at Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Applied Climatology class, Fort Collins, CO, September 19, 2007.
Demuth, J., 2007. NCAR's Societal Impacts Program: WIST-related research efforts. Invited presentation given at the Third National Surface Transportation Weather Symposium, Vienna , VA , July 25, 2007.
Demuth, J., R. Morss, J. Lazo, A. Stewart, 2007. Assessing how the U.S. public understands and uses weather forecast uncertainty information. Presentation given at the annual Association of American Geographers meeting, San Francisco, CA, April 17, 2007.
Demuth, J., R. Morss, J. Lazo, 2007. Assessing how the U.S. public understands and uses weather forecast uncertainty information. Presentation given as part of ISSE coffee talk series, NCAR, April 10, 2007.
Demuth, J., R. Morss, J. Lazo, A. Stewart, 2007. Assessing how the U.S. public understands and uses weather forecast uncertainty information. Presentation given at the annual American Meteorological Society meeting, San Antonio , TX , January 16, 2007.
Demuth, J., and E. Gruntfest, 2006. WAS*IS future directions. Presentation given at the Second THORPEX International Science Symposium, Landshut, Bavaria, Germany, December 7, 2006.