rebecca morss
During FY2007, Dr. Rebecca Morss (MMM/ESSL and ISSE/SERE) continued research and community service activities related to meteorological and socioeconomic aspects of weather forecasts, floods, and hurricanes.
Research highlights
Improving communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts
A 2006 National Research Council panel found that while effectively communicating weather forecast uncertainty is an important challenge for the meteorological public and private sector, the meteorological community has limited understanding of how to communicate weather forecast uncertainty effectively to a range of users. To address this knowledge gap, in FY07 Dr. Morss, J. Demuth (NCAR ISSE/RAL), J. Lazo (NCAR RAL/ISSE) developed and implemented a nationwide, web-based survey addressing fundamental questions related to communicating weather forecast uncertainty to members of the public. The results examine people's uncertainty-related interpretations of current weather forecasts, understanding of current uncertainty forecasts, preferences for deterministic versus uncertainty-explicit forecasts, and preferences for uncertainty communication formats. The knowledge gained through the project can inform both future uncertainty communication research and policy decisions on uncertainty forecasting.
Morss, R. E., J. Demuth, and J. K. Lazo: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: Results from a survey of the U.S. public. Wea. Forecasting, in preparation.
Educating undergraduates through a student research study of the public's response to Hurricane Rita forecasts
Following the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita was the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. coastline. In FY07, Dr. Morss, F. Zhang ( Texas A&M University ), and several Texas A&M University students completed analysis of findings from a spring 2006 student research project at Texas A&M studying Rita's forecasts and societal impacts. The results examine the public's preparation and evacuation decisions prior to Hurricane Rita, their perceptions of hurricane risk, and their sources, perceptions, and uses of Rita forecasts. By providing students with research experience and first-hand knowledge about how the public experiences and copes with hazardous hurricanes, the project also generated substantial educational benefits for the students. Based on these benefits, Dr. Morss and Prof. Zhang propose that the project and class can serve as a prototype for linking meteorological education to reality through undergraduate research.
Zhang, F., R. E. Morss, J. A. Sippel, T. K. Beckman, N. C. Clements, N. L. Hampshire, J. N. Harvey, J. M. Hernandez, Z. C. Morgan, R. M. Mosier, S. Wang, and S. D. Winkley, 2007: An in-person survey investigating public perceptions of and response to Hurricane Rita forecasts along the Texas Coast. Wea. Forecasting, in press.
Morss, R. E., and F. Zhang, 2007: Linking meteorological education to reality: A prototype undergraduate research study of public response to Hurricane Rita forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , submitted.
Applying ethics to analyze hydrometeorological prediction and flood decision making
Ethics provides a unique perspective for examining the interactions between scientific information and decision making. In FY07, Dr. Morss and E. Wahl (Alfred Univ.) completed a project applying a formal ethical framework to analyze these interactions in flood hazards, focusing on the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks , ND and East Grand Forks , MN . The analysis examines the appropriateness of the flood prediction information provided, the role of predictive uncertainty in the flood, different participants' responsibility for decision making, and the role of concern about panic and false alarms in complicated flood fighting decisions. The ethical framework employed may also be useful in analyzing prediction, communication, and decisions in other disasters and other areas of hydrometeorological prediction.
Morss, R. E., and E. Wahl , 2007: An ethical analysis of prediction and decision making: The case of the Red River flood of 1997. Env. Hazards, in press.
Understanding how weather forecasters and emergency managers use information about approaching West Coast winter storms
In FY07, Dr. Morss and F. Martin Ralph (NOAA) completed a project investigating how different types of information are used by forecasters and emergency managers leading up to and during West Coast winter storms. The project included interviews with forecasters, emergency managers, and other stakeholders, as well as participant observation sessions in National Weather Service offices. The results elucidate the important roles that human forecasters play in integrating information and in translating forecasts to provide value to forecast users. The results can also inform future projects that seek to provide useful information for operational forecasting, emergency management, and other societal decisions.
Morss, R. E., and F. M. Ralph, 2007: Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001. Wea. Forecasting , 22 , 539-555.
Additional research
Dr. Morss's other ongoing research projects include:
• An analysis of flood vulnerability combining hydrometeorological and societal data using Geographical Information Systems, with O. Wilhelmi (NCAR ISSE) and B. Edwards (former UCAR SOARS protégé)
• A study of U.S. households' sources, perceptions, uses, and values of weather forecast information, with J. Lazo (NCAR RAL/ISSE) and J. Demuth (NCAR ISSE/RAL)
• A study of scale interactions in atmospheric predictability in a quasi-geostrophic model, with C. Snyder (NCAR MMM) and R. Rotunno (NCAR MMM)
• An analysis of the use of scientific information in flood-related decision making, synthesizing findings from three cases
• An examination of the growing gap between scientific advances and societal use, with W. Hooke (AMS)
• A multi-method, interdisciplinary collaboration to improve communication and use of extreme weather warnings, with J. Lazo (NCAR RAL/ISSE), K. Tierney (Univ. of Colorado), A. Bostrom (Univ. of Washington), J. Sutton (Univ. of Colorado), and J. Demuth (NCAR ISSE/RAL)
Workshop and community service highlights
In FY07, Dr. Morss co-led a major effort to articulate weather – socioeconomic research and applications priorities and coalesce the associated interdisciplinary community, described below. She also contributed to the ongoing Weather and Society * Integrated Studies effort to develop an interdisciplinary community to integrate social science into meteorological research and practice in a comprehensive and sustained way.
Her other FY07 community service activities include:
• Appointment to the Editorial Board of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Subject Matter Expert on Societal and Economic Impacts)
• Co-convener of two sessions on Creating Usable Science in the 21 st Century: Strategies for More Effectively Connecting Science to Societal Needs at the fall 2007 American Geophysical Union meeting
• Contributions to the World Meteorological Organization WCRP-THORPEX White Paper “Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate” (lead authors: B. Hoskins, G. Brunet).
• Service on several committees for the American Meteorological Society
Developing socioeconomic research priorities for 1-to-14-day weather forecasts and the North American THORPEX program
In FY07, Dr. Morss and an interdisciplinary team of NCAR, NOAA, and university collaborators synthesized discussions from the August 2006 North American THORPEX Societal and Economic Research and Applications (NAT-SERA) Workshop into an article defining SERA research priorities for weather prediction, articulating their importance, and discussing next steps to facilitate the necessary interdisciplinary work. Many of the ideas discussed in the article were incorporated into the U.S. THORPEX Science Plan; they are also relevant to weather prediction more broadly. By disseminating the ideas through the article and at conferences and workshops, the team seeks to reinvigorate interest in societal and economic research and applications ( SERA ) activities within the meteorological and social science communities.
Morss, R. E., J. K. Lazo, B. G. Brown, H. E. Brooks, P. T. Ganderton, and B. N. Mills, 2007: Societal and economic research and applications for weather forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, accepted.