Investigating the Interactions of the Atmosphere, the Broader Earth System, and Human Society
Research in SERE on coupled human and natural systems concentrates on the ecological and societal impacts of climate change and severe weather. SERE also conducts research that seeks to provide better understanding of the interactions among long-term climate change, climate variability, and weather extremes while reducing societal vulnerability to their impacts. Current research spans all aspects of the strategic priority. We have chosen to highlight the interactions between the natural environment and human societies, focusing on impacts in the oceans, regional climate, extreme weather events, and economic sectors.
Human-Environmental Interaction and Risk for Dengue Fever
Hayden and colleague from Brownsville, TX Department of Health assessing dengue fever mosquito vectors breeding in waste tires (August 2007).
Dengue is an emerging arboviral disease with worldwide impact. Increasing numbers of cases of this disease in both the Americas and Asia necessitate an examination of changing human and vector ecology in order to better understand the dynamics of dengue transmission. This transmission is especially important in geographic areas where dengue has more recently emerged. Research in these areas seeks to develop interventions to slow or halt the further expansion of dengue, and to efficiently focus preventive efforts.
An outbreak investigation within the Lower Rio Grande was conducted in Brownsville, Texas and Matamoros, Mexico in 2005. This research revealed the highest prevalence of human anti-dengue antibodies in the continental United States in the last 50 years and the first case of classic dengue hemorrhagic fever acquired in the continental United States. The data indicate many more infections in Matamoros than in Brownsville and highlight the need to delineate the various influences, including climate, on dengue transmission dynamics.
Because dengue fever is transmitted by an urban, peridomestic mosquito, examination of waste tires and other water-holding containers in close proximity to households is critical to a clear understanding of the potential role that tires play in mosquito breeding sites. To better inform educational campaigns directed toward tire clean-up, it is necessary to ensure that household members understand the risk and are willing to engage in activities leading to tire removal/mosquito breeding site mitigation. Local government efforts to control tires must also be informed by careful evaluation to ensure efficient and effective quality control efforts.
Analysis and write-up of 2007 field work is planned for 2008. Additional funding will be sought to expand the study to better understand the human-environmental interactions that contribute to disease transmission in the TX-MX border region.
Research team:
Mary Hayden, PhD, Lead NCAR Scientist, ASP Postdoctoral Fellow and NCAR Visiting Scientist
Stephen Waterman, MD, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/Border Infectious Disease Surveillance Program, San Diego, CA
Roy Burton, State Entomologist, Texas Department of State Health Services
Jose Luis Robles, MD, Coordinador Médico de Servicios de Salud, Jurisdicción Sanitaria 3. Tamaulipas Secretaria de Salud, Matamoros, MX
Brian Smith, MD, Regional Director, Public Health Region 11, Texas Department of State Health Services
Josue Ramirez, Director, Brownsville Department of Health
Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez, DrPH, Behavioral Scientist, CDC/Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases
Roberto Barrera, PhD, Chief of Ecology and Entomology, CDC/Dengue Branch/Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases
This research is funded by NSF through its support of the SERE Laboratory, the Pan American Health Organization, and the US Environmental Protection Agency.
RESUCCCITIES: Initiative to Attain Resilient and Sustainable Relationships among Carbon, Climate and Cities
Historical or environmental context of the project
The world's largest demographic and economic growth is occurring in urban areas, engines of development and sources of innovations comprising 50% of the world population. The tendency for continued urban development faces three constraints which jeopardize any attempt at achieving more sustainable and resilient societies. First, a peak in the production of fossil fuel, particularly petroleum, is expected (Figure 1). Second, not only are urban dwellers affected by the direct impact of air pollutants on health; the earth system has a limited capacity to absorb carbon emissions, which translates to climate forcing with increasingly negative and unequal impacts on cities, and on the ecosystems and natural resources of value to society. Finally, environmental injustice exists in two domains: the access to energy resources has been historically dominated by few countries and sectors. Many urban centers and populations with almost negligible contributions to carbon in the atmosphere are located within developing nations (Figure 2), which are most at risk from sea-level rise, heat waves, storms, and floods whose frequency and/or intensity are likely to increase as a result of climate change.
Figure 1: Peak in oil productionDuncan 2000 (http://dieoff.org/page224.htm)
accessed 08-07
Cities are understudied and ill-equipped for action in both the mitigation and adaptation sides of the climate change arena. In response to this challenge, ISSE scientist Paty Romero Lankao has designed RESUCCCITIES.
Rationale
Science can contribute to the development of resilient and sustainable cities by deploying a new generation of multidisciplinary urban models and scenarios embedded into the global coupled climate models and emerging earth system-type models. It can assess the influence of life styles, household's structure and size, technologies in use, institutional settings and other societal factors in both cities' emissions trajectories and capacity to cope with climate change. It can quantify climate changes that will be particularly relevant to urban populations, such as intensified effects of heat waves, urban flooding from more intense rainfall in a warmer climate, and the entire issue of water supply and quality that will influence cities, but relates to much larger scale climate fluctuations involved with longer term sustained precipitation changes.
Since current climate models are too coarse to be of use in detailed urban regions,
a new generation of models with detailed representations of the role of cities' development pathways in adaptation and mitigation will be applied to this problem. A new level of coordination among modeling groups and case studies addressing this problem will also be required, because while many case studies on cities exist, they are very fragmented and lack a common template or integrated model that would allow easy inter-comparison of their results, thereby limiting our ability to generalize these results into a conceptual model and shared metrics.
This initiative, which supports NCAR strategic directions 1 and 2 (Understanding the Earth and Sun System & Resilience to Weather and Climate Hazards) seeks to address both societal challenges and research gaps by bringing together natural and social scientists to bridge the gap between global models and fragmented urban case studies by:
• Building urban scenarios together with relevant national and city stakeholders to identify future trajectories of urban development, sets of energy and development policies, as well as key uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and sources of resilience involved with the climate change mitigation/adaptation process
• Developing a process model for use in Earth system models of the socioeconomic, environmental and institutional drivers of cities' trajectories of change explaining a) their use of energy and land and b) their vulnerability/resilience to climate relevant threats at global, regional and local scales
• Working with the earth system model developers and key stakeholders to produce climate change assessments as well as output from a set of models that is more relevant to urban and national decision makers
Accomplishments FY07: Milestones and outputs
The concept note was completed. RESUCCCITIES has the endorsement of key partners within CGD and IMAGe (e.g. Warren Washington, Jerry Meehl, Lawrence Buja, Doug Nychka). It involves a collaborative effort with the Global Carbon Project (GCP, international organization with headquarters in Australia, China and Japan), the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN organization with representatives from the Americas), the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change Project (UGEC, international organization with headquarters in Arizona), and the International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED, international organization with headquarters in London).
Timeline, outputs and outcomes
A steering committee will be created to ensure the overall scientific integrity of this initiative and to write a white paper (March 2008). The white paper will serve as a leverage to design a forum/workshop (Oct 2008) aimed at a) selecting a set of prototypic case studies, b) obtaining sponsorship from key organizations and scholars within and outside NCAR (e.g. CGD, IMAGe, NARCCAP, Global Carbon Project, UCCRN, IHDP-Urbanization, British Consulate, IAI, Oak Ridge Laboratory, Urban Resilience, and IIED), and c) selecting a group of high-profile social and natural scientists, practitioners and decision makers to participate in the forum and in drafting a set of high-profile papers.
Phase III will require both substantial funding and the engagement of a broad scientific and practitioner community to develop the core components of the initiative, namely: drafting of a comprehensive protocol or framework for case studies, selecting collaborators, conducting empirical research on the selected case studies, organizing a kick off workshop and a major international conference, and publishing of findings.
Timeline
| Stage/Goal | Date | Activity |
| I. White Paper | November 2007 | Buy-in from key carbon and climate organizations, stakeholders & scholars within & outside NCAR |
| January 2008 | Steering Committee | |
| March 2008 | White Paper | |
| II. Forum | October 2008 | Forum or workshop of high-profile social and natural scientists, practioners and decision makers |
| March 2008 | Two High-profile papers submitted | |
| III. Research Program Design & Funding | 2009 | Research proposal and Solicitation of support to NCAR, NSF and other agencies within and outside US |
Impact of the initiative
RESUCCCITIES will contribute to develop resilient and sustainable urban centers that have the vision for a) coping in a fair way with shortages and changes in energy provision and, by so doing, de-carbonize our societies; b) harnessing resources, infrastructures, and governance structures to cope with climate and other environmental risks in the most effective manner.
RESUCCCITIES has the endorsement of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the scientific challenge and fundamentally critical nature of the carbon cycle as it relates to the sustainability of Earth. The scientific goal of the project is to develop a complete characterization of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them.
The activities of this new initiative are supported by NSF through its funding of SERE and the NCAR Earth System Modeling Initiative.
Research Team:
Paty Romero-Lankao, Lead NCAR Scientist, Deputy Director of NCAR/ISSE
Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGD) of NCAR
Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN)
Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project
International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED).
NARCCAP: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
NARCCAP is the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, an international effort to generate high-resolution climate scenarios by nesting multiple regional climate models (RCMs) within multiple global circulation models (GCMs) over the conterminous United States and most of Canada. The resulting datasets will be highly valuable to climate change impacts assessment researchers because of their increased resolution and availability in GIS formats; and to investigators studying uncertainty in regional climate modeling by allowing the comparison of multiple models of the same future conditions.
It is expected that over 40 TB of quality checked data will be submitted for archiving. During FY07, work at NCAR has included: development of an automated testing suite to ensure that data is correctly formatted and uncorrupted; coordinating plans with colleagues in CISL to archive data into the NCAR Mass Store and publishing these data through the Earth System Grid; development of a Data Archiving Protocol document; website and end-user support; discussions and testing to ensure that end-users' needs are met; and collaboration with the modeling groups and quality assurance team at Iowa State University as the first datasets begin to pass through the testing and archival pipeline.
Comparison of observational data, NCEP reanalysis data, NCEP-driven WRF data, and NCEP-driven WRF data for long-term average winter (DJF)
Phase I of the project, which entails driving the RCMs with NCEP reanalysis data for 1979-2000, has been completed, as have the current and future runs with two atmosphere-only models (time slice experiments), CAM3 and the GFDL AM2.1.
During FY08, the model runs driven with NCEP-II reanalysis data will be tested and archived, as will data from the GCM-driven runs. Work will also include outreach to and support of the end-user community for purpose of evaluating and meeting the needs of impacts users.
Research Team:
Linda Mearns, Lead NCAR Scientist, Director of NCAR/ISSE
Seth McGinnis (ISSE)
Larry McDaniel (ISSE)
Olga Wilhelmi (ISSE)
Nadine Salzmann (ISSE)
Jennifer Boehnert (RAL)
Luca Cinquini (CISL)
Chi-Fan Shih (CISL)
Don Middleton (CISL)
James Done (MMM)
Doug Nychka (IMAGe)
Steve Sain (IMAGe)
Warren Washington (CGD)
Tom Wigley (CGD)
James Hack (CGD)
Bill Kuo (MMM)
Chris Andersen (Iowa State)
Ray Arritt (Iowa State)
Dave Bader (LLNL)
Sebastien Biner (Ouranos)
George Boer (CCCma)
Erasmo Buonomo (Hadley Centre)
Daniel Caya (Ouranos)
Phil Duffy (LLNL)
Dave Flory (Iowa State)
Filippo Giorgi (ICTP)
William Gutowski (Iowa State)
Isaac Held (GFDL)
Tony Hoang (PCMDI)
Richard Jones (Hadley Centre)
Rene Laprise (UQAM)
Ruby Leung (PNNL)
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia (Hadley Centre)
Ana Nunes (Scripps and UCSD)
Jeremy Pal (ICTP)
John Roads (Scripps)
Lisa Sloan (UC Santa Cruz)
Mark Snyder (UC Santa Cruz)
Ron Stouffer (GFDL)
Gene Takle (Iowa State)
Dean Williams (PCMDI)
This work is supported by the National Science Foundation.
SWANS: Society, Water, and Natural Systems
This new program emphasizes opportunities for improved scientific coordination, both within NCAR and across the university community by fostering the integration of social, atmospheric, and other natural science elements to address critical and time-sensitive water science and water policy concerns. High-quality integrated science is needed in order to evaluate vulnerabilities, develop testable research hypotheses, define and articulate the limits of hydro-climatic predictability, and plan for adaptation strategies that effectively avert hardship and avoid unnecessary damages and costs.
A pilot project was begun during FY07 that will focus on critical questions concerning the effects of climate change on snow processes in Colorado 's mountains and the resulting implications for water management and policy. During FY08, the pilot project will work towards the establishment of a multi-institutional collaborative effort tentatively entitled "The Colorado Headwaters Consortium."
The research, focusing on the implications of the likely range of hydrological changes for water allocation both within Colorado and between Colorado and neighboring states, will draw upon ISSE/RAL collaborative work with Colorado Front Range urban water providers and will examine policy options for mitigating possible adverse socioeconomic and ecosystem impacts. Additionally, related research will continue on the broader socioeconomic and environmental effects of climate change on water resources, by exploring recently identified opportunities for collaboration with the University of Nebraska and the U.S. Geological Survey regarding the implications of climate change for sustainable water resource management in the High Plains.
Research Team:
Kathleen Miller, PhD, Lead NCAR Scientist
NCAR/RAL
University of Nebraska
U.S. Geological Survey
Colorado Front Range Water Resource Managers
SERE/ISSE
ESSL/TIIMES
University of Colorado
NOAA, including the Western Water Assessment research staff from the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program
Integrated Approach to Coastal Urban Affairs: Megacities on the Coast
Coastal cities worldwide, with higher population densities, serve as centers of industry and culture. However, since they are located in low-lying coast areas, they can easily fall victim to global climate change and global sea level rise. Flooding, inundation, coastal erosion, and increased salinity pose serious threats to these coastal urban areas and may cause heavy loss of life and property. Research is needed and is underway to examine the implications of climate change on these cities and determine possible measures to build their capacity to better mitigate and adapt to these stresses.
During FY07, CCB staff developed a report for SARP (NOAA's new Sectoral Applications Research Program) on the current state of understanding related to climate issues in coastal regions, including the identification of gaps in this knowledge and potential scientific and educational program directions. Entitled "Megacities on the Coast," this report and its accompanying annotated bibliography include a comprehensive literature review and analysis. During FY07, researchers within the United States and Asia are engaged in the development of the annotated bibliography.
To ensure that the highest quality report is produced, CCB staff provide review and analysis oversight of this effort. This project will conclude by the second quarter of FY08 and is supported by the National Science Foundation and Climate Program Office within NOAA.
Other FY07 activities in this area include the establishment of a Coastal Urban Affairs Center at East China Normal University in Shanghai, China. This research will continue through FY08 and focus specifically on impacts of global warming on China 's coastal cities. The aim of his research is the establishment of a framework of strategy and policy tools for purpose of tackling the various issues faced by coastal urban areas in the context of climate change. In addition to this research, scientists are working on the development of an action plan to help promote this program in Shandong, China.
This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, and is also supported by the Ministry of Education in China.
Research Team:
Qian Ye, PhD, SERE/CCB Visiting Scientist
Yiming He, SERE/CCB Visiting Scientist, Professor, Ocean University of China, Shandong, China
East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Michael Glantz, PhD, SERE/CCB
Ocean Acidification
An underwater photo of a CO2 sampling system attached to one of NOAA's Integrated Coral Observing Systems (ICON) in the Bahamas.
The oceans have absorbed one-third to one-half of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere which is causing a significant decrease in seawater pH. This process, called “ocean acidification,” affects many ocean biogeochemical processes; it also affects many marine organisms that can significantly affect major marine ecosystems from high-latitude planktonic systems to tropical coral reefs. Interest in ocean acidification has quickly become a major oceanographic research priority and has invoked strong political interest.
SERE/ISSE scientists have provided significant leadership in designing future research strategies in ocean acidification research at the national and international levels, through representation on multiple steering committees (U.S. Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Program), advisory boards (E.U. CarboOcean Research program and European Program on Ocean Acidification), and research planning committees (e.g., NSF/NOAA/NASA-sponsored Ocean Acidification Scoping Workshop, October, 2008 at Scripps Institute of Oceanography). Further, a SERE/ISSE scientist has provided testimony on ocean acidification for hearings for U.S. House and Senate committees, and provides continued support for House and Senate bills that address U.S. government actions to address ocean acidification. In the field, a pilot project was completed in FY07 to measure diurnal changes in seawater carbonate chemistry on the La Parguera reef in Puerto Rico. This work was coordinated with NOAA's Integrated Coral Reef Observing Network (ICON) and the University of Miami 's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), and was part of a broader effort to implement NOAA's ICON stations that have the ability to track ocean acidification through autonomous seawater carbonate system monitoring.
The commitment of U.S. funding agencies to implement a coordinated ocean acidification research plan is growing and will continue to demand support in shaping that plan. Several reports on this issue are in progress and will be completed in FY08. Collaborative field efforts with NOAAs carbonate chemistry research will continue, particularly with respect to the design of experimental field research.
Research team:
Joanie Kleypas, PhD, NCAR Lead Scientist
Chris Langdon, PhD, and colleagues at the Rosentiel School of Oceanography, University of Miami
James Hendee, PhD, and Rik Wanninkhof, PhD, NOAA
Temperature Extremes and Coral Bleaching
Summary of severe bleaching events in major reef provinces, as percentage of coral reefs that have experienced at least one severe bleaching event since 1980.
Coral bleaching, a phenomenon by which corals expel their symbiotic algae, has affected nearly 40% of reefs worldwide over the last 25 years, and has caused mass mortality of corals in about one-third of these events. Large-scale coral bleaching events are strongly correlated with extremes in sea surface temperature (SST). This project addresses the spatial variability in extreme events and how they determine coral reef bleaching patterns.
Work was completed this year on an analysis which highlights important geographic differences in bleaching patterns, and highlights a region in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) where coral bleaching rates were lowest. This region is one where maximum SSTs are thought to be limited by various feedback processes that block further warming, sometimes called the “ocean thermostat.” Warming in this region was shown to be less than in other regions, in both observations and in CCSM simulations. This work is important because it helps to identify regions that may be less vulnerable to the impact of future warming, subsequently lessen the extent of coral bleaching, and thus serves to inform marine conservation efforts. Results from this work have been submitted for publication to the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Based on the observational relationships determined from this research, work in FY08 will focus on using the CCSM to predict spatial variability in SST and the probability of future coral bleaching events. Work will continue to refine our understanding of how SST extremes vary spatially across tropical oceans, through analysis of SST observations at different spatial and temporal scales. Plans include using a Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) imbedded in the CCSM to examine coral reef vulnerability to climate change at resolutions more appropriate for an ecosystem. This work will determine coral reef vulnerability to environmental change (in terms of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) using a suite of environmental variables including SST, light, and hydrodynamic regime. In the aggregate, this work will help us understand what factors contribute to a coral reef ecosystem resilience.
Research team:
Joanie Kleypas, PhD, NCAR Lead Scientist
Gokhan Danabasoglu, PhD, NCAR ESSL/CGD Scientist
Janice Lough, PhD, and colleagues at the Australian Institute of Marine Science
Zack Powell, PhD, and colleagues at the University of California, Berkeley
Patrick Boylan, SERE/ISSE Student Assistant
The Potentials of and Limits to Adaptation in Norway (PLAN)
Olga Wilhelmi will be collaborating with her colleagues at the University of Oslo on the Norwegian Research Council-funded project, “The Potentials of and Limits to Adaptation in Norway” (PLAN). This four-year project will provide an empirical and theoretical understanding of adaptation as a social process, with an emphasis on its potential to reduce negative impacts and realize the potential benefits of climate change. It will also contribute to a relatively new discourse on the societal limits to adaptation as an effective response to climate change. One of the sub-projects is focused on development of an Integrated Geographic Information System for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Capacity in Norway.
Collaborators:
Anne Lucas ( University of Bergen )
Karen O'Brien (University of Oslo)
Inger Hanssen-Bauer (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)
Lynn Rosentrater (U. Oslo)
Olga Wilhelmi (GCM).
developing community models
Societal Resilience System of Systems (SRSS)
To ensure resilient communities, which are prepared to cope with and mitigate against climate, water and weather uncertainties, interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary communications and research are required to understand the complexities of interactions and solutions to stakeholder questions. This understanding requires leadership in the development of a “societal resilience system of systems (SRSS)” framework that will begin to unravel the complex interactions among the myriad contributors within and across the systems involved. These systems include agriculture, human health, water, energy, climate, transportation, weather, coastal, urban, ecosystem health, economics, land use, and public safety. SRSS is developing a framework that will: (1) Provide intensive, comprehensive, adaptable, diagnostic local and regional case studies with feedback processes at the interface between each system within a defined "System of Systems"; (2) Employ decision support processes and assessment tools; and (3) Foster capacity building and educational programs throughout the stakeholder communities. The SRSS framework can be used by scientists within each of the identified systems to more fully understand the feedback loops among systems and can further be used by decision-makers whose work is affected by uncertainties inherent in the coupled natural and human systems sciences.
SRSS requires scientific expertise in each of the systems needed to address specific societal questions, challenges and opportunities. The SERE Laboratory will facilitate the establishment of a network of collaborators and partners, both internal and external to NCAR, which will provide the requisite expertise to develop the SRSS framework. Scientists and staff within the SERE Laboratory will serve as the architects and integrators of SRSS. The principal research of the SERE Laboratory is the development of an accurate understanding of the connections and feedback processes between systems and development of an accurate understanding of the human dimensions of specific systems. This understanding will be captured through the development of quantitative and qualitative diagnostics. The individual system development will reside in NCAR Earth and/or in partnering university, governmental, foundational or business institutions. To further extend the scientific expertise within NCAR and the SERE Laboratory, and to leverage the expertise available both nationally and internationally in a cost-effective manner, the extensive engagement of Visiting Scientists, Affiliate Scientists, and Educators will be employed to provide the broad range of scientific, managerial, and business expertise required to effectively and efficiently drive the SRSS network.
During FY07, scientists within SERE/ISSE and RAL partnered with the Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorology, which is hosted by NOAA, and Howard University to begin the development of three "proof-of-concept" case studies for SRSS development. The case studies focus on the "systems" required to translate, transfer and implement climate, water resource and weather research, data and information to stakeholders in the cities of Charleston, SC and Mobile, AL before, during and after the occurrence of a tropical cyclone.
During FY08, it is expected that the governing framework for SRSS will be completed along with a minimum of four prototype case studies, to include one from the energy industry led by Plymouth State University, which demonstrate the applicability and need for the SRSS network.
Research Team:
Denise Stephenson Hawk, PhD, Lead, NCAR Associate Director and Director of SERE
Sam Williamson, Federal Coordinator of Meteorology, NOAA
Mark Welshinger, OFCM, NOAA
Mary Hayden, PhD, Scientist, SERE/ASP and SERE/ISSE
Olga Wilhelmi, PhD, Scientist, SERE/ISSE and Director of the GIS Initiative
Paty Romero-Lankao, PhD, Scientist, Deputy Director of ISSE
Larry McDaniel, Associate Scientist, SERE/ISSE
Jeff Lazo, PhD, Economist, SERE/ISSE and RAL
Mayors of Charleston, SC and Mobile, AL
Emergency Managers of Charleston, SC and Mobile, AL
Betty Morrow, PhD, Consulting Sociologist, Florida
Naomi Moye, Communications Specialist, Maryland
Charles Glass, PhD, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Howard University, Washington, DC
Graduate students at Howard University
Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH
Funding for the development of SRSS is provided by the National Science Foundation with leveraged resources from the Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorological Services and Research, NOAA.